This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Biden EPIC-MRA. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Download. Republicans (R) +2. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Trump. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 950 RV. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. New Hampshire 1st District - Leavitt vs. 22, 2023. Click on your candidates to read their biography, view past election. As you can see, the president’s party lost. Download. 3 points, according to. Download. Most recent cycle. . 48. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Download the data. For instance, Omar and Samuels didn’t debate, and despite amassing a sizable war chest of her. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 2-point advantage in the national generic ballot, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 11-13. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Earliest day for independent candidates to circulate and file nominating petitions. 3. 2. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Download the data. The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. 1 Sept. A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 0. 804 A. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. KEY. Download the data. CNN: D 51%, R 42% (D+9) Democrats won a net of 40 seats. General Election: Trump vs. 83%. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. RCP Poll Average. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 7-10. 02. 4. 7. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Ron DeSantis’s 538 polling average in the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary is. Biden and Trump are also virtually tied — Trump at 45. 4. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 6. How do you like your House forecast? Lite. Generic ballot polling average. 0 percent). When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Download. 0 points. Poll type. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Nov. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. Download. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Democrats lose generic ballot lead: Congressional Democrats have lost their advantage over congressional Republicans on the generic ballot, with likely voters now evenly split — 46% to 46% — on the question. Wisconsin +2 dem. 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls analyzed. Polling shows that so far, according to 538's average,. Democrats +2. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. The reality of the generic ballot is that Democrats generally need to be ahead by a few points to have a status-quo election. B/C. Download the data. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. 49. Trump. The average showed generic Democrats with an average of 44. As recently as the 1970s, a voter’s preferences were only loosely moored to partisanship. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Once upon a time, people really did vote for person over party. Download the data. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. The U. Download the data. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. We’ve collected 162 generic ballot polls so far. Republicans ended up winning the national House. Josh Christenson. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The generic ballot in those combined districts, pitting an unnamed Democratic candidate against an unnamed Republican candidate, was tied at 39 percent among registered voters. 43. Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper. Download the data. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. 5, 2024, when they must finalize their primary ballot. FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump Sep 14, 2023; 2024 Election. 8, 2016 44. Overall, Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate are 68-in-100, according to the Deluxe version of our forecast. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 2024 Election. Download the data. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 46%. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 2. House, where 218 seats are needed for a majority (when there are no vacancies). 2024 Republican Debates. Download the data. 46%. For Ballotpedia's presidential approval, congressional approval, direction of the country, and generic congressional ballot polling results, we take an average of the most recent polls (from the last 30 days, with some exceptions for major news events) on one or more of these topics conducted by the. Even when Democrats were busy crafting and eventually introducing a fairly unpopular health care bill in the middle of 2009, they still held a 3 percentage point lead on the generic ballot for the. 48. SIOUX CITY, Iowa -- The wife of a northwestern Iowa county supervisor was convicted Tuesday of a scheme to stuff the ballot box in her husband’s unsuccessful race for. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. A Look At The Generic Ballot. At least 15 congressional races already feature a challenger who faced the current incumbent on the general election ballot in 2022. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Democrats now enjoy a small but notable lead over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot with less than three months before crucial midterm elections, according to. Primaries by state. Trump. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. -- A judge has struck down an effort to enshrine reproductive rights, including abortion, in Nevada’s constitution, as abortion rights. 3%. This 3-part map lets you view the current composition of the U. And the generic ballot. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 1 Nov. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Listen. 4% Democrat. A handful of recent polls asking likely voters in Virginia if they plan to vote for a Democrat or Republican in the upcoming General Assembly election (much like generic ballot surveys for U. 27%. My thinking/question is this: 538 generic ballot tracker shows Dems up 1. 2-point edge on the generic ballot. Obama’s net approval rating was -11 points, but Democrats actually led in generic-ballot polling by 2 points. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 3,662 registered voters from Oct. Canada is looking to restore ties with President Nicolás Maduro ’s socialist government in Venezuela, falling in line with other. Democrats (D) +6. In 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, the margin on the generic congressional ballot was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45%. in fear that they would imperil a President Biden victory in 2024. Nov. 8 House popular vote, proving that Tuesday’s national environment was indeed only Republican- leaning. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Ohio voted to enshrine abortion rights in its state constitution. avg. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 2014 Generic Congressional Vote. Democrats won. The result was a. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead Republicans by 2. 6 national generic ballot after accounting for uncontested seats, most of which were won by Republican candidates this year. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Pappas UNH Pappas 50, Leavitt 49 Pappas +1 New Hampshire 2nd District - Burns vs. West Siena Biden 37, Trump 28, Kennedy 18, West 5 Biden +9 Michigan: Trump vs. Download the data. At least 15 congressional races already feature a challenger who faced the current incumbent on the general election ballot in 2022. 3 . Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. The faux Democratic generic ballot lead in June, July, and August of 2014 broke hard toward Republicans the minute September hit and voters began paying attention again. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. Design and. 3 percent to 41. ABC’s Jonathan Karl and 538 blogger Nate Silver -- noted that the recent polls about Obama’s approval rating and the generic ballot. His predecessor Donald Trump, a member. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Includes special elections that took place on Nov. And in Pennsylvania, Democrats won a vacant seat to secure a 5-2 majority on the state Supreme Court. Download the data. voters to the generic Democrat candidate’s 41 percent, a three. 19, 2020. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. On average, Democrats are running about 4. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. There’s been huge variation from survey to survey on the generic. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023. Download the data. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Republicans (R) +2. 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Indicates a polling average for this poll type. 11, 2023. 2024 Elections Truth-o-Meter True Mostly True Half True. S. According to a RealClearPolitics-style** average of generic congressional ballot polls (i. ESTIMATE. Democrats (D) +7. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 2 percent in an average of all. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Republicans (R) July October 2018 April July October 36 38 40. Governor, Kentucky, 2023. 5 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of. 22 to Nov. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. That. Republicans (R) +2. Democrats will likely lose West Virginia's Senate seat in 2024. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Democratic Gov. The average. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The 2018 midterm elections are a. 2018 Generic Congressional Vote. On Election Day 2022, Republicans had a 1. 5Download the data. 6 national generic ballot after accounting for uncontested seats, most of which were won by Republican candidates this year. 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access in South Dakota Brochure. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Download the data. Download. Democracy Corps is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Download. 6. Club for Growth Action (super PAC) Club for Growth Action (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Download. All 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. On Election Day 2022, Republicans had a 1. 45. Sort by date. S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. 6 points. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. They Didn’t Start Voting Differently From Men Until 1980. 6% Masters 47. The lead for a Republican candidate has nearly doubled since last week on the generic congressional ballot, according to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly poll released Friday. In contrast, polls of close partisan elections can be extremely sensitive: whether Mr. A: We collect polls for presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections in addition to presidential approval polls, vice presidential approval polls and congressional generic. A Yahoo News-YouGov poll released Friday found 45. 5 GOP (R) +2. Download. Their surveys with Siena College during. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Galen also digs into the New York Times’s first polls of the 2024 primary and general elections with Ruth Igielnik, the Times’s editor of news surveys. Nov. For the 18 midterm elections that have taken place since 1946, I compared the final generic-ballot polling of the cycle by Gallup or the final polling average from RealClearPoliticsGallup surveys. 6 attack on the Capitol off the ballot in 2024. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Keep it simple, please — give me the best forecast you can based on what local and national polls say. Generic ballot; Trump approval; Search for a race or candidate + Back to the national overview. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Generic ballot, 2022. Generic ballot. Six pollsters 1 have released generic ballot polls both before and after the Dobbs decision. Colorado officials have urged a final decision by Jan. Download. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Democracy Corps is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. 1,500. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 13-17 found that 40 percent of likely 2024 voters would. 2024 Elections; Top Stories. 43. U. m. Therefore, we also make our data available for download so you can play with. Download. S. Download. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. Andy Beshear is a Democratic Party candidate for office. While it’s definitely too early to hang your hat on any 2024 general-election polls, a Selzer & Co. Download the data. Note that these polls differ by 1 point for Ds. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. 3 percentage points (48. Modi’s government wants to ensure adequate supplies at home and to cool price increases, said B. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 8, 2022 leader Nov. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Download the data. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Download the data. Download the data. 49. An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Download. No bachelor’s. Download. When the dust settled, it was a solid night. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. +5. 5 percent to 42. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. Ahead of the U. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The first, from our colleagues at ABC News and The Washington Post, showed Republicans 1 point ahead on the generic ballot among registered voters but 2 points ahead among likely voters, making. Based on the current generic ballot polling, Republicans are leading by about two points right now, and Crystal Ball predicts a 19-seat loss in the House—taking it from a five-member Democratic. Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Rasmussen. Biden. Rasmussen has the Democrats losing the generic ballot by 9 points (and has had similar numbers for awhile). And journalists noticed. Download the data. Download the data. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 45. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 5 percentage points, but actually won the national vote by only 1. And the generic ballot. Senate, U. Kyle Rivas / Getty Images. Over that time, the generic-ballot polling average has missed the national House popular vote margin by an average of only 4. The last key point is that the generic ballot can be somewhat misleading when it comes to the eventual outcomes — because history shows Democrats need to be leading on that measure to keep their. And overall, the latest average from 538 gives the Republicans a very narrow .